Estimates & Projections

The Programs' Overall Objectives

• To allow the State of Texas to actively participate in the U.S. Bureau of Census population estimates and projections programs.
• To produce annual estimates of the total populations of counties and places in the state and estimates of county populations by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.
• To produce biennial projections of the population of the State and all counties in the State by age, sex, and race/ethnicity.

Users of Our Estimates and Projections

• Governor's Office (for numerous purposes)
• Legislative Budget Board (for budget planning)
• Legislative Council (for redistricting planning)
• Comptroller's Office (as a basis for their estimates for regions)
• Texas Department of Transportation (for facility, route and highway construction planning)
• Texas National Guard (to guide their recruiting efforts and estimate future manpower needs)
• Department of Human Services (to increase accuracy of their service projections)
• Texas Department of Economic Development
• Numerous other state agencies and public organizations
• Numerous County Judges and other local officials (for redistricting and other purposes)

Estimates

The Texas State Data Center produces annual estimates of the total population of counties and places (municipalities) in the state and estimates of county populations by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The State Data Center incorporates an average of three methods for county estimates

• Ratio-Correlation with births, deaths, school enrollment, voter registration, and vehicle registration
• Component-Method II
• Housing Unit Method (four types - single family, 2-4 unit, 5+ units, & mobile homes)

and an average of two methods for place estimates:

• Component-Method II
• Housing Unit Method

For additional information please visit the Texas State Data Center on population estimate methodology.

Projections

The Texas State Data Center produces biennial projections of the state and counties by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The projections are used extensively by public and private entities.

Every 2 to 3 years, the State Data Center also produces state and county level projections for every year from 2005 through 2040 for the following:

• Households
• Labor force
• Primary/secondary education enrollment
• Community colleges and university enrollment.

Population projections methodology utilized by the State Data Center includes the following:

• Single year of age, two sexes, 4 racial/ethnic groups (Anglo, Black, Hispanic, and Other), cohort-component projection model.
• Among the variables incorporated into the State Data Center projections model are special populations and fertility, mortality, and residual migration rates.

For additional information please visit the Texas State Data Center on population projection methodology.